Odds for 2008


2-1 Hillary Clinton

5-1 John Edwards

8-1 Random Democratic senator

9-1 Barack Obama (or whatever his name is)


3-1 Jeb Bush

5-1 Random Republican governor

6-1 Rudy Giuliani

9-1 John McCain


1-1 Ralph Nader

666-1 Cthulhu (of course, if he actually decides to run, all bets are off)


2-1 Someone of whom you’ve never heard.

5-1 Penn Jillette

Forget the pollsters, listen to me

1. President Bush became the first President to be re-elected while gaining seats in the House and Senate since 1936 and the first Republican President since 1924 to be re-elected while re-electing Republican House and Senate majorities.

2. Became the first President to win a majority of the popular vote since 1988.

3. Received 57.4 million votes – more than any other candidate in history. He broke President Reagan’s 1984 mark of 54.5 million. (96% reporting)

4. Increased the popular vote by seven million votes since 2000 – more than twice Clinton’s increase from 1992 to 1996.

5. Improved his percentage in every state except four (MD, OR, VT and WY). This includes a four percent increase in John Kerry’s home state, Massachusetts.

I’m not displeased with my election predictions. The final CNN/Gallup Poll had the election at 49 to 49. If you recall, I said that you always have to add five points to the Republican, and the final results were 52 to 48 percent. (The media is rounding 51.55 percent down, surprise surprise). Unlike National Review and all the Northern Alliance guys except for Hugh Hewitt, I did not take the early exit polls seriously and posted to that effect at the time here yesterday.

The day after the Massachusetts Supreme Court created “gay marriage” I said that Bush would have an easy victory – not a landslide, just one that wasn’t subject to 2000-style recounts – and that’s pretty much what happened. Ohio, you’ll note, had a marriage amendment on the ballot which brought out the social conservatives who obviously weren’t interested in the Constitution Party. I think it was only as close as it was because the stock market has been flat throughout the campaign. Had the market crashed, Robert Prechter almost surely would have been right and Bush would have lost; that did not turn out to be the case. Timing is clearly not their strong suit, but all the same, one ignores him and leaps into the markets now at one’s peril.

I was largely wrong about the turnout, which I expected to be flat. However, the much-ballyhooed P.Diddy-MTV youth vote failed to manifest, so I wasn’t completely wrong there. And, of course, I wasn’t even close on the third-party turnout, as the LP’s Michael Badnarik didn’t hit 1 million votes or a combined 2 percent of the ballot with the CP. Clearly, the further you are emotionally away from something, the easier it is to analyze it accurately.

We are here for all your election prediction and analysis needs. And Jeanne, when you’re ready to order those books, you can do it here….

On Paypal and why I won’t use it

ajw308 is curious:

A couple of times now, you’ve indicated on your blog a refusal to use Paypal without stating why. I did join Slashdot.org, searched on Paypal, and founds lots of Paypal articles. Nothing that would dissuade me from using them though jumped out. Can you post a link on your blog? Others have also indicated an interest in this info.

There are a number of reasons listed here, but these are the ones that I find compelling:

2. Their customer service is horrible. They hide their telephone number, (intentionally – by their own admission) and only provided support via “form” emails: As for the customer service, Sollitto said they intentionally make the phone number very difficult to find in order to save costs.”

4. If PayPal feels your actions are questionable, PayPal is the investigator, judge, jury and executioner. “Telling your side” of what happened, in most cases seems to be irrelevant. They also refuse to provide you with the details of their investigation and withhold documents they relied upon to make their decisions.

5. If you are a bona fide, up-standing individual with hundreds of successful transactions, but someone pays you with a stolen credit card, your account (by PayPal’s own admission) is immediately flagged as being “criminal behavior” and any money in that account is confiscated.

Furthermore, as a general principle, I don’t consider it wise to give people and corporations you do not know direct access to your bank account.

Four more years

Congratulations Republicans. It hasn’t been formally called yet, but it’s clear that you managed to re-elect George Bush, as I have long expected.

Now that THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION OF OUR LIFETIMES is over (for another four years) I’m sure that we are all looking forward to the nirvanic bliss that an all-Republican federal government will soon bestow upon us.

And, of course, we’ll find out whether your theories of secret plans to move to the right are correct or whether you too will be angry, disaffected and voting third party in 2008.

A wildly inaccurate exit poll

For whom did you vote?

37% (R) George Bush (276)

34% (L) Michael Badnarik (254)

14% (C) Michael Peroutka (105)

10% (N) I didn’t vote (74)

04% (D) John Kerry (27)

00% (I) Ralph Nader (3)

00% (G) David Cobb (0)

Total Votes: 739

Yep, this is about as accurate as the early exit polls saying that Kerry was winning every swing state by 20 percent margins. Keep that in mind next time before you start getting your panties in a bunch.

I’m just curious to see the difference between how readers here will actually vote compared to how they said they’d vote a few months back. If you recall, the results then were about 40 percent Bush, 40 percent Badnarik, 15 percent Peroutka and 5 percent Kerry. Unfortunately, I forgot to add the non-vote option, so the numbers will definitely be off.

Anyhow, vote once and only vote if you actually voted – or did not vote. My guess is that Bush will now be around 40 percent, Badnarik, Peroutka and No Vote will all be in the vicinity of 20 percent. Kerry as before, at five percent.

As for the real election, I stand by my prediction that Bush will win with more than 300 electoral college votes. I also predict that the Constitution and Libertarian parties will do a little better than expected, perhaps 2 percent together, and that voter turnout will not be any higher than normal.

UPDATE: Larry Kudlow posts on NRO: “The Horse Race Blog, which I know you’re all watching, has similar numbers. He expects the margin to be 51.0 to 47.3 with Bush garnering 306-327 EVs while Kerry gets 211-232.” In other words, about what I’ve been saying for six months, although I’d prefer to see the LP+CP total north of 2 percent. We’ll see.