And now for the important stuff

I’m a little disappointed that the Baseball Savant hasn’t posted his NFL playoff picks yet, since I won’t be able to mock them in the process of making my own. Ah well, no doubt he will soon give us the opportunity to abuse him by calling for his beloved Peyton Manning to knock off Detroit in the Super Bowl or something like that.

Hey, it’s why they call him the BASEBALL Savant.

In short, I expect Baltimore to win the Super Bowl. In the absence of a dominant team, go with the defense with the competent quarterback and the proven playoff coach. The Chargers are certainly impressive, but I don’t see them as being particularly dominant, nor do I see Marty Schottenheimer guiding a first-time playoff quarterback to a championship.

I’m less enthusiastic about even picking an NFC champion, but I simply can’t go with the Bears given how bad Grossman has played. The Saints strike me as being too happy to be there and while Brees is even better than the quarterback I wanted the Vikings to pursue in free agency last year, he hasn’t been a big playoff performer. Since I have to pick someone, I’ll go with the Eagles. I’ve always liked Jeff Garcia, Andy Reid is a proven playoff coach and their defensive weakness is against the pass, which Grossman is unlikely to exploit.

Also, it’s the veteran white quarterbacks who tend to overperform in the playoffs. I still can’t get over Rich Gannon’s swan song with the Raiders… who was that guy and why didn’t he play that way in his prime for the Vikings?

As for this week, here’s my thoughts:

Colts over Chiefs – Dungy is a good man and a bad game-day coach. Herm Edwards is a shifty man and an even worse game-day coach. Sure, the Colts can’t stop Johnson, but the Chiefs won’t stop Manning in a Dome either.

Cowboys over Seahawks – A rookie quarterback can get you past the first round. Seattle has not impressed me in any way, shape or form this year. Maybe I’m underestimating them, but I don’t think so.

Patriots over Jets – I’m with the Sports Guy on this one. I think Brady and Belicek have been laying low for the last month. Mangini has done an excellent job this season, but he just doesn’t have enough horses.

Eagles over Giants – Maybe the chaos will magically come together again, as it did last week, but I seriously doubt it.

Wouldn’t it be ironic, though, if this is the year that Dungy and company are finally able to get it done, when nearly everyone has jumped off the bandwagon. (Note: I was NEVER on it, having been a Tony Dungy fan since his Gopher days. That Chuckie thing wasn’t a coincidence.)

UPDATE: Despite ripping off all of my first-round picks, the BASEBALL Savant does not disappoint:

SUPER BOWL PREDICTION: Indianapolis Colts over Philadelphia Eagles

At the end of the day, PEYTON MANNING WILL BE CROWNED SIMULTANEOUSLY SUPER BOWL CHAMPION AND GREATEST QB TO EVER PLAY THE GAME! Of course, we already know he’s the greatest QB to ever play the game. Now all the haters will have to admit it!

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION BABY!

Well, at least he realized that the Lions didn’t make the playoffs. Nevertheless, psychiatric therapy is clearly indicated.

Rape is a liberal disease

Pretty Lady managed to offend the liberals by contrasting her experience here in this den of right-wing extremism with the behavior of her left-wing acquaintances:

I am a female person who is not occupying a traditional role in society and I have received nothing but respect from these men, who do me the honor of taking me seriously as a fully responsible adult, while also providing much kindness and practical support. Whereas a great number of my more ‘liberal’ male acquaintances have behaved like passive, blood-sucking users, toward a fully responsible adult female like myself….

And there is a greater likelihood of being sexually railroaded, manipulated, and ultimately betrayed and abandoned by a pseudo-liberal, ‘sex-positive’ person, who disconnects sex from its obvious consequences, than by a man who believes that sex carries responsibilities and consequences for BOTH people participating in the act, and that thus it should be undertaken with consideration and reverence.

MikeWC, as appears to be his wont, took exception to this, replying:

Are you claiming it is empirically true that “liberal” men rape more often than “conservative” men (whatever those silly modifiers mean)? I’d like to see some numbers on that.

I jumped in by suggesting that while Pretty Lady was not necessarily saying any such thing, I would be happy to do so, and moreover, would prove that liberals are inordinately rape-inclined with empirical evidence. In fact, I shall prove it using a variety of statistical measures. They are admittedly rather crude, in my opinion, but are nevertheless significantly more accurate than the measures deemed acceptable by eminent scientists such as Richard Dawkins and various American university professors.

It is a known fact that non-white men are more inclined to be liberal, (in the current American sense of the term), as evidenced by their 2004 electoral support for the two left-wing presidential candidates, John Kerry and Ralph Nader. This non-white group made up 21.7 percent of the male electorate and supported Kerry by a factor of 2.27, with 68 percent voting for Kerry or Nader, and only 30 percent voting for Bush. (All electoral data is courtesy of CNN.)

According to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report, African-American, American Indian or Alaskan Native and Asian or Pacific Islander men were arrested for 34.9 percent of the Forcible Rapes in 2005.(1) This is 60.8 percent more rapes than their percentage of the voting population would indicate and 102 percent more than would be expected given their percentage of the total population. (17.3 percent).

Furthermore, the white male population, which was 78.3 percent of the male electorate and supported Bush over Kerry and Nader by 62 percent to 37 percent, only committed 65.1 percent of the Forcible Rapes. This is 20.3 percent fewer rapes than would be statistically predicted, furthermore, the number of rape arrests attributable to Bush-voting is actually overcounted due to the fact that while the FBI’s URC methodology includes Hispanic rapists in the white totals, they are not included in the white male voting populace, as Latinos (of both sexes) were 8 percent of the electorate in 2004.

Assuming that voting Latino men rape at the same rate as white male voters, (the anecdotal evidence is that Hispanics are more likely to commit rape but I have no statistical data), the percentage of rapes attributable to white men drops to 61.8 percent, while that of non-white men rises to 38.2.(2)

Therefore, whereas the liberal-leaning group commits 76 percent more rapes than their percentage of the electorate would predict, the conservative-leaning group commits 26.7 percent less rape. Therefore, we can estimate that a liberal man is roughly twice as likely to commit rape than a conservative man.

But this is only one way to demonstrate the liberal male proclivity towards rape. In a comparative study of America’s most liberal and most conservative large cities, the most liberal city, Detroit, had a rape rate of 65.4 per 100,000 population, whereas the most conservative city, Provo, had a rape rate that was 22.4 percent lower, at 53.4 per 100,000.

This comparison holds true at every level, state, county and city. The most liberal “state” in the country, Washington DC, also boasts the highest rate of rape as well. The reader may recall the famous map of the 2004 election demonstrating graphically that most of Kerry’s support was in the urban communites, while Bush dominated the suburban and rural communities. The rape rates in 2005 were 35.4 for urban communities, 24.9 for the suburban communities and 26.2 for rural communities, indicating a 38.55 percent greater inclination for rape in the liberal-leaning urban populations across the country.

However, it is in the county comparisons that the most striking detail can be seen. Minnesota’s most liberal county is St. Louis county, which supported Kerry by a margin of 66 to 35. The St. Louis rape rate was five points higher than the national average, at 18.45 per 100k, and was more than THREE TIMES higher the most conservative county, Roseau, which went for Bush 68 to 32 and had a 2005 rape rate of only 6.1 per 100k.(3)

The Minnesota example is supported by similar analyses I have done comparing violent crime statistics in all of the counties in Maryland and Florida, in fact, the conclusion that liberal men are inordinately disposed to commit rape will likely be supported by the county-by-county evidence from every state in America. Therefore, we can reasonably conclude that liberals are between two and three times more likely to commit rape than conservatives.

Cogito, ergo mandato.

(1) Given the fact that the identity of the rapist can only be determined via arrests, for the purposes of this analysis, rape arrests = rapes. However, since the percentage of non-white men convicted for rape is even higher than the percentage of non-white men arrested, this methodology actually tends to minimize the liberal proclivity for rape.
(2) Fibonacci! Now you KNOW it’s true.
(3) Liberals can’t even hide behind the race card. The racial makeup of liberal St. Louis county is 94.86% white, compared to 95.92% in conservative Roseau county.

Or not so much

I heard from a gentleman who does read ancient Chinese. He requested that I not post his excellent and detailed explication of Sun Tzu and the question of Moral Law/morale, but the summary is: you’re wrong on this one and you have no idea what you’re talking about.

If I grasped what he was saying correctly, the underlying problem is that the concept of individual morale as we know it in the West simply isn’t applicable to a society that didn’t view people as individuals per se, but more as appendages of the greater social body. Therefore, the “harmony” translation clearly makes more sense and Giles was right to resist the temptation to use “morale”.

I hope I won’t offend the gentleman by sharing one thing from his email, because it’s quite funny and illustrates how perilous it can be to blindly trust translations. (More on this later, as I’m reading Eco’s new book on the subject right now.) The Chinese scholar compared what is considered to be the best translation of a passage from the I Ching with his own translation from the original:

“Great good fortune: it furthers one to see the Great Man; it furthers one to cross the great Water….etc.”

“Big Man standing in a Pool of Blood: Move the Troops”.

Anyhow, mea culpa. I henceforth renounce my short-lived, inauspicious career in Ancient Chinese translation. Speaking of texts, I could use a OpenOffice or Word document containing the full text of the blog archives here. This would be useful in searching for past posts since the Blogger search function is rather unreliable. I’ve been meaning to do it for a while, but just haven’t gotten around to it.

So, if you’re in the mood for something tedious, please let me know by commenting here in order prevent redundancy.