Election 2010

This is an open post. Please feel free to comment with any breaking news about the various exit polls and election calls. I’m going to stay up for part of it, but not the entirety, so someone else will have to fill in with the color commentary. But if nothing else, it will be amusing to see a bigger mid-term bomb than the 1994 one.

Let’s you and him fight

An example of how failing to keep your woman’s tongue under control can get you killed, even if you’re a Marine:

A 23-year-old Marine who lived in Metairie was fatally stabbed following an argument with a man who defamed the Marine’s wife. The suspect yelled derogatory comments at Ryan Lekosky’s wife as the couple walked about 3:30 a.m. near the intersection of Dauphine and Iberville streets in the French Quarter, police said. Lekosky tried to intervene in the altercation between his wife and the suspect. The suspect turned on Lekosky, stabbing him several times. The suspect then returned to his vehicle and drove away on Dauphine Street, toward Canal Street. Lekosky died from his wounds.

The root problem is that men haven’t really figured out what they can and cannot do in defense of women’s honor anymore. In the days of yore, the Marine could have simply killed the guy out of hand and few would have thought twice about it; back then, defaming a man’s wife was a killing offense. Now, most women would be horrified at a male companion who, at the first derogatory word directed her way, immediately pulled out a .357 and fired six shots into the offender’s face. At the same time, not considering themselves proper targets for physical violence, most women won’t hesitate to escalate a verbal situation and if a man shrugs off a verbal assault directed at a woman with him, he is often going to be attacked by her for not coming to her defense.

So, what to do? It’s hard to say and it’s somewhat of a catch-22. All we can really conclude from the limited amount of information here is that it is a very bad idea for the man to assume that because he is not party to the verbal altercation, he will not be attacked first in the escalation. Once the situation transforms into a violent altercation, an attacker can be expected to attack the potentially more dangerous opponent first, which means that interceding in a manner that leaves you open to the other guy is a bad idea. The two-fold challenge is a) how to prevent the situation from developing into a violent one without causing your wife or girlfriend to develop contempt for you simply because you’re not foolish enough to fall for the old “let’s you and him fight” game, and b) how to extricate the two of you from an escalating situation without either of you getting hurt.

All of this presumes, of course, that you’re not dumb enough to escalate a verbal situation to a violent one on the basis of your own emotional reaction.

The first thing to do is to encourage her to blow it off. What do the words of some drunk idiot with an 85 IQ have to do with her? Of course, this is probably much easier to pull off if you’re carrying; she’s unlikely to accuse you of being a coward who won’t stand up for her if you ask her how many times she would like you to shoot the guy in the skull with your .40. Faced with such an offer, she’ll likely do an immediate 180 and start trying to encourage you to move along. Women are excited by male posturing and fisticuffs, not blowback and brain matter.

However, if a woman is feisty and responds by getting in the idiot’s face, the best thing is probably to physically withdraw her while keeping her between you and the opponent and keeping your focus on him. You can explain later that you were concerned about the bad guy hurting her and so forth; it’s better that she be angry with you for forcibly extricating her from a potentially dangerous situation than be contemptuous of you for failing to act at all. And if she does get hurt, well, she’s an adult and she bears the responsibility for her decision to confront the idiot, not you. But the likelihood that she’ll be attacked in a lethal manner is quite small since she won’t be perceived as a serious threat so the worst that’s likely to happen is that she’ll get punched or slapped. Undesirable, but she’ll live.

Of course, the biggest problem is that men in general, and white knights in particular, usually respond in a pompous and unprepared manner, paying more attention to the woman than they do to the potential opponent. That’s understandable, since most of what they’re doing is a chivalrous show for the woman’s benefit anyhow, but it’s not the best strategy in the event that the other guy isn’t posturing.

Of course, it’s perhaps worth recalling that chivalry was the show knights put on for other men’s wives.

On the record

For future reference, the final generic ballot polls from the major polling operations:

For his final pre-election prediction, Nate Silver projects it as follows as of November 1st:

Hse: Rep 233 Dem 202
Sen: Rep 48 Dem 52
Gov: Rep 30 Dem 19 Ind 1

I do not pretend to be an expert on this subject, nor do I pay sufficient attention to it to even know who is running for what office in the various states in most cases.  But based on the macro socionomic trends, I think Gallup and Rasmussen will prove to be the more reliable polls and Republicans will win 51+ Senate seats tonight.  We’ll find out soon enough.

Now go out there and vote for libertarians who have no hope of winning because every vote matters and this is the mostest importantest election ever!  Unless you’re in Delaware, Kentucky, or Nevada, of course, in which case you absolutely must vote for Christine O’Donnell, Rand Paul, or Sharon Angle just to upset the mainstream media poohbahs.

Mailvox: the voice of optimism

RC contends that the Tea Party is here to stay:

You are reading this the situation incorrectly.

The TEA Party will (in 2 more years) oust more elected officials (even TEA Partiers) who have not supported the core conservative principles! We are in it for the long run. If you believe true TEA Partiers will be co-opted once in power, you are wrong. They know they will get the boot!

Good governance will not occur in one election cycle. It will take 3 cycles to fully purge the deadwood.

As you can see, powerful, lifetime politicians are struggling as never before to retain their seats. Do you REALLY believe they want that battle very often? No way! Do you REALLY believe the GOP believes it is in a position superior to the TEA Party? No way. No Money! Partiers give direct to candidates–no longer only RNC. Sure, they raise money. But, we can raise more. Say our numbers grow to a mere 40 million (from the about 20 million today). If each contributes $100 for targeted campaign contributions, that gives $4 billion to support 1/2 the Congress and the presidential race. Works out to about $15 million per candidate (if averaged). If more is needed, we kick in an extra $100.

My guess is that the GOP is happy that the TEA Party came along. Also, they realize that the Partiers are not stupid. There are TEA Party strategy sessions all the time. Even though from ground up, we all want the same core principles defended. Woe be to those that stray! Voting nationwide with our checkbooks or credit cards (and in massive numbers) is nothing to sneeze at.

Also, look at the increase in numbers of precinct delegates, poll watchers, candidates, etc. Training sessions, bill reviews, rallies, marches, e-mails, phone calls, etc.
Cannot agree with you. The synergy is great. We will prevail in restoring the republic.

Our greatest advantage? Passion for what is right. We have it.

It sounds good. It’s not impossible. But it is nevertheless highly improbable. I don’t hear any powerful Republicans showing much concern of the Tea Party turning on them, and more to the point, I see a lot of signs that the Tea Party has already been co-opted. When establishment Republicans are talking about gradual change and bipartisan consolidation while neocons like Sarah Palin and Dana Loesch are hailed as Tea Party “leaders”, it doesn’t take a genius to see that what has happened time and time again to rebellious conservative grass roots organizations is already happening to the Tea Party.

That being said, there is one X factor that could lead to the Tea Party growing up to become a viable third party and that is the next wave of the depression now taking shape. Historically, American parties have formed around the issue of the banks; the Democratic party was originally the anti-banking party of Andrew Jackson and William Jennings Bryan while the Whigs and Republicans were pro-bank. But both modern parties have been wholly owned by the banking interests since Democrat Woodrow Wilson and a Democratic Congress pushed through the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. (The Ilk will note the counterpush at work.)

So, there is a clear political vaccuum which the Tea Party could profitably fill. And indeed, it was the reaction to the bank bailouts that originally inspired the first Tea Party reactions although that has rapidly been transformed into an incoherent, anti-spending-except-for-the greater-part-of-the-spending movement. If, and only if, the Tea Party gravitates towards a genuine anti-banking, anti-immigration, anti-Republican party and forces the two factions of the ruling party to merge de jure as well as de facto, it can reasonably hope to succeed and effect change. But as yet, I see few, if any, signs of that.